Iran regime incapable of reform, Alain Vivien writes in Le Monde

 Many people hoped for moderation of the Iranian regime after the accession of Hassan Rouhani as president, but they forget that the theocratic regime is by its nature incapable of reform, argues Alain Vivien, a former French secretary of state for Foreign Affairs.

Writing for France’s Le Monde on Friday, Mr. Vivien pointed out that the international community is more than ever “perplexed by the political instability” in Iran.

Following the regime’s nuclear deal with the major world powers last July, its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has no longer been able to maintain the “cohesion of his regime,” Mr. Vivien wrote, adding that other regime veterans have gone so far as to publish open letters against him.

The regime’s weakness is also reflected in Khamenei’s inconsistent decisions such as his constant diatribes against the West despite the nuclear deal.

“Foreign observers are both stunned by the violent tone of the Iranian leader and worried about the prospect of relations with a country whose leaders are still locked in the past,” Mr. Vivien wrote.

He added that today the regime is paralyzed by a deadly dilemma: should it be locked again on itself in the hope of preserving the religious-political ideology and power of the mullahs; or should it open up to the world giving Iran the prominent place that it deserves among the nations of the world? But any opening up would mean abandoning the ‘principle of the supremacy of the Supreme Leader’ and the influence of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) on society and the Iranian economy. Such a prospect would be an admission of weakness that the regime seeks at all costs to avoid, Mr. Vivien said, adding that Khamenei knows that the Iranian people, disillusioned, are waiting for the first opportunity to express their anger, as they did in the nationwide uprising against the regime in 2009.

He pointed out that the IRGC, which both serve as army and the regime’s storm troopers control many economic sectors including those of international trade and energy. The IRGC and economic institutions tied to the Supreme Leader control more than half of the country’s economic activity (more than 50% of the country's GDP, estimated at $400 billion, according to Reuters), causing a major handicap for development. The current situation leads firstly to the squandering of resources (in the nuclear projects, support for Islamist and terrorist movements, the military intervention in the Syrian conflict, etc.). On the other hand it undermines the confidence of investors who do not wish to do business with entities that, despite the partial lifting of sanctions, remain classified as a terrorist organization listed by the United Nations and the United States, Mr. Vivien argued.

The French Committee for a Democratic Iran, which we founded in 2007 with François Colcombet and Jean-Pierre Michel, believes that in the current situation, the West cannot be content with only one conclusion of a nuclear agreement, he said. Repression and executions have not halted in Iran. Women activists, trade unionists, leftist intellectuals, the members of the People's Mujahedeen (PMOI or MEK), and even representatives of religious and ethnic minorities are imprisoned, he pointed out. Since Rouhani took office, death sentences and executions in Iran have reached record levels.

Moreover, the regime remains uncompromising in its policy of interference in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere, Mr. Vivien wrote.

“We must demand Iran respect its international commitments and for an end to its nefarious hegemonic strategy for the region, including in Syria. This requires Iran to accept the moratorium proposed by non-governmental organizations on the death penalty. The international community must not lower its guard on these fundamentals. It can and must take concrete steps to help Iranian democrats who are working for democratic change in their country,” he added.

Alain Vivien, a former secretary of state for Foreign Affairs in France, is co-founder of the French Committee for a Democratic Iran (CFID). Members of the CFID are planning to participate in the major “Free Iran” gathering on July 9 in Paris.